Do you have any interesting comments or analysis of the closeness of the Federal Election or the implications of a hung parliament?

I am not disappointed that it's a hung parliament. I am no Antony Green but I think the prediction of Coalition 73, Labor 72 or 73 (depending on Denison which is now, sadly, is predicted for Labor), 1 Green, and 3 Formerly-National Independents is a good guess. This would make it anyone's game as the 3 Independents would truly hold the balance (able to bring the Coalition up to 76 or Labor+Green up to 76). If the Coalition lose Hasluck and are stuck on 72 then I think we'll see Gillard returned with the Independents support because there is no way the Independents will be able to offer stable government to the Coalition.

So I'm hoping for a 73-73 result with the independents (who seem to be quite sensible people) empowered to do some good.

If they choose for the Coalition I think there would be a push for a change in policy on regional infrastructure, including the NBN. I would suspect a decent commitment to _regional_ broadband at least. That would be a good thing.

If they choose for the ALP I think there would be a benefit in the form of increased transparency in government and parliamentary processes and some sort of detail (in terms of cabinet positions or so forth) that may reduce the power of personalities in the government ranks. That would also be a good thing.

Let wisdom and principle prevail. I will be disappointed if the three independents settle for some extra pork in their own electorates. Their rhetoric is that this is a "national interest" issue and I hope they stick to that.

It's obvious that Tasmania was sacrificed in this election. The 5% swing to the ALP in Tasmania was all about the NBN and the Libs knew it. Guy Barnett is right to be peeved at his machine just as much as Sid Sidebottom can blame his 2004 defeat on Latham's forest policy. I am hoping for Wilkie to get up in Denison just to prove a point that you can't/shouldn't ignore Tasmania.

All in all, this is a fascinating outcome for a governance geek. Any discussion between now and when the seats are officially called (not likely for days) is just commentary in a holding pattern. So I'll hold off further until then.

URL: http://www.formspring.me/briggswill/q/1001458172